Thursday, July 21, 2011

Freddie Mac: 'Double Dip' in Housing Is Unlikely

Freddie Mac continues to sound optimism about the housing market for the second half of 2011. In its latest economic and housing market outlook report, Freddie Mac says that the housing market is unlikely to experience a “double dip” and home sales are projected to reach above last year’s pace by 3 percent to 5 percent.
Despite an unemployment rate that sits at 9.2 percent, Freddie Mac says the gloomy job picture reflects a temporary “soft patch” in the economy and “does not foreshadow an inflection point in gross domestic product growth.”
Freddie Mac forecasts that the housing market “will likely follow the performance of the overall economy for the remainder of 2011.”
Rental housing will likely see the largest growth. Freddie Mac’s first-quarter apartment property price index rose 15.2 percent compared to last year.
While home buyer affordability is at record levels and mortgage rates are at historical lows, households are still putting off major purchases like buying a home, according to the report.
"Following June's labor market report, households are naturally concerned about their financial futures, which is being reflected in the housing market," says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. "Yet, the single-family market will likely improve over the balance of 2011, in keeping with positive GDP forecasts for the United States. Home sales are expected to be up over 2010's pace, perhaps by 3 to 5 percent. And after clear weakness in national price metrics through the first quarter, there are glimmers the second quarter will likely show gradual improvement over time."
Source: “Freddie Mac Says Housing Sector Unlikely to See Double Dip,” HousingWire (July 18, 2011) and “July 2011 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook,” Freddie Mac (July 18, 2011)

Monday, July 11, 2011

June 2011 Market Stats - Source: Realtors Association of Maui

by Maui Real Estate 808 on Monday, July 11, 2011 at 12:18pm
Brief Maui Statistics Overview:

June's Sales Volume – June’s Residential Sales rose to 81 homes sold, while Condo Sales declined to 101 units sold.    Land sales came in at 13 lots sold.

June's Median SALES prices – Home median prices rose to $429,000, while Condo median prices dipped to $295,000. Land median price rose to $299,000.

Days on Market for Residential homes = 141 DOM, Condos = 147 DOM, Land = 145 DOM. (General DOM Note: this is the average DOM for the properties that SOLD. If predominantly OLD inventory sells, it can move this indicator upward, and vice versa. RAM's Days on Market are calculated from List Date to Closing Date [not contract date]. As such, it includes approximately 60 days of escrow time.) Also – Short Sales transactions can often take 4-6 months to close thereby extending the marketplace’s average DOM.

"Year to Date Sales" numbers only compare January-June 2011 to January-June 2010. Short timeframe (monthly) views do not necessarily reflect the longer timeframe trends.

Year to Date: Comparing January-June 2011 to January-June 2010 - Residential unit sales rose (+4%), average sold price = $732,569 (-4%), median price = $445,000 (-5%) and total dollar volume sold = $324,528,034 (-1%). This reflects the bump up last year due to 2009-2010 Federal Tax Credit programs and 2011 numbers will probably catch up as the year progresses.

Condo unit sales decreased (-3%), average sold price = $527,534 (-30%), median price = $325,000 (-24%). Total Condo dollar volume sold = $340,259,146 (-33%).

Land – NOTE: Land Lot sales are such a small sampling that statistics in this property class are not necessarily reliable indicators. Land lot sales decreased (-3%), average sold price = $643,744 (+20%), median price = $315,000 (-30%), Total dollar volume = $44,418,351 (+17%).

Also, total sales for immediately past 12 months: Residential = 830, Condo = 1,125, Land = 124.

Current Absorption Rate base on this month’s Active inventory divided by June Sales is: Residential = 10.7 months, Condo = 11.1 months, Land = 39.6 months.